As the Cold War came to an end in 1991, some felt an era of world peace and prosperity was finally here. This belief was reflected in an influential essay by Francis Fukuyama entitled, “The End of History?” Before the Soviet Union even fell, he wrote about a new golden age of liberal democratic governance, where dictatorships across the globe would eventually disappear.
Over the next decade, the Western world did experience relative peace and prosperity. But for post-Soviet republics, these years were tumultuous. As my sister-in-law from Ukraine once said to me in terminology I would understand: “When the Soviet Union collapsed, it was game over.”
We like to think the end of communism brought economic liberation to countries like Ukraine and Russia, but it didn’t – at least not in the short term. The transition to capitalism was sudden, filled with policy mistakes and corruption. As oligarchs amassed enormous wealth, peoples’ pensions disappeared. Even my wife’s father, a high-ranking government official, was not immune to the eventual loss of life savings. Rampant inflation nearly destroyed post-Soviet economies in the late 1990s.
It was from this desolation that a new leader emerged named Vladimir Putin. A former KGB officer, he longed for the days of the Soviet Empire, when his nation was strong and commanded the attention of the world.
Yet over the next decade of his rule, Russia remained largely irrelevant. Economically, its growth was dwarfed by emerging economies like China and India. Militarily, it was spending only a fraction of what the U.S. spent annually. Putin appeared to be harmless. Only presidential Republican candidate Mitt Romney sounded the alarm bells about Russia. No one else seemed to pay much attention.
Then came 2014, when Russia overtook parts of Ukraine. This was part of a reaction to the ouster of Ukraine’s current president after his decision to align closer with Russia instead of the European Union. He was Putin’s puppet and many Ukrainians were opposed.
Not all Ukrainians, mind you. At that point in time, some Ukrainians in southern and eastern Ukraine were still closely allied with Russia. What harm could come with aligning closer with a nation that could also provide an economic boost to a poorer neighbour?
No one could have foreseen the future. No one expected Ukraine’s “brother” to act like a brute. Before the 2014 invasion, as our Ukrainian nephew speculated, Ukraine could have maybe fallen to Russia because it was divided. But not after.
Over the last decade, as Russia waged war on its former ally, Putin’s true KGB colours came to the fore. His government conducted an elaborate doping scheme to give Russian athletes the edge in the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics. If you forgot why Russian Olympic athletes can no longer compete under their nation's flag, this is why.
In 2016, Russia meddled in the U.S. election by leaking damaging emails about Hillary Clinton and using social media to influence voters. Putin knew a dictatorial friend when he saw one: Donald Trump fit the bill better than anyone could have ever imagined.
But still, the Western world remained largely uninterested in Russia. Until February 24, 2022. Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine came at a moment when the world was still benefiting from the peace dividends of the end of the Cold War.
The war in Ukraine may be a harbinger of conflicts to come. China’s invasion of Tawain appears to be only a matter of time. The U.S., which has an even larger stake in Tawain given its technological value, will be challenged to defend this small island state.
China’s goals are ideological and not rational, as the immediate economic fallout will likely be severe. But it won’t matter to its leader. Just like with Russia, dictatorial regimes can become side-tracked by grandiose projects and personal ambitions. There is no one – not even their own people – who can stop them.
It’s the beginning of a new history – one filled with uncertainty and military growth – but hopefully not the end of the liberal, democratic world.
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