When western leaders start worrying about what happens when Russia “loses” the war in Ukraine, I get concerned.
This is what it has come to: The strange, misguided belief that Ukraine is winning a war because it did not topple in the first week of invasion. The West, namely Germany and France, is now stricken with fear that Vladimir Putin is being “humiliated”. Ukraine, which has had one third of its population displaced, faces a 30% reduction in its labour force, and has lost over 20% of its territory to Russia – could tip the scales with limited Western support and somehow “win” this war.
What would winning even constitute? Reclaiming a portion of the land that was recently conquered by Russian forces? Rebuilding cities that have been utterly destroyed by Russian artillery? Stopping the onslaught of missiles that can be fired by Russia at any time (40 missiles were fired at various cities across Ukraine only yesterday)? Is that victory, in the eyes of the West?
The West continues to shake in its boots, worried that Putin will extend the war to NATO territory with a depleted military and an understanding that any nuclear attack will result in a devastating counter-attack.
In the meantime, Russia continues to terrorize the whole of the Ukrainian population. In the occupied area of Melitopol, public executions are being considered to deter Ukrainian resistance. Missing Ukrainian persons number in the thousands – family members have no idea where their loved ones have been taken.
The mayor of Mykolaiv, the last bastion of defense before the Ukrainian-controlled port city of Odessa, has now told everyone to leave the city. This city of 480,000 was already at half its population. Odessa, the last port to be controlled by Ukraine, cannot ship any grain due to Russia’s occupation of the Black Sea.
The world waits with baited breath as many countries dependent on this grain face starvation, and most likely, political upheaval.
I have never been less of a pacifist. Although I believe war is destructive, and peace should always be the first “line of defense” against hate and killing, there is no other way to defend against ruthless dictators like Putin than through force.
Ukraine needs weapons – heavy weaponry that will deter Russia from ever considering another attack. There is no other way.
I am almost certain that this will eventually turn into Putin’s own Afghanistan, which will ultimately lead to guerilla warfare, endless Russian lives lost, and eventually, political upheaval. But it could take years. Occupiers tend to defend their occupation until the very end (see both Soviet and US occupations of Afghanistan for similar results).
In the meantime, we can only watch. We will go on vacation with our friend’s daughter from Kyiv, who is now living with us. We will visit my sister-in-law and her husband from southern Ukraine who are now living in a one-bedroom apartment with their son (thankfully he immigrated years ago). We will have supper tonight with a woman who is from my wife’s home city. Every one of them is living from a suitcase they took from her homes. Every one of them is hoping they have a home to go back to.
They like Canada, but Ukraine is home. They want to live with autonomy and dignity – not under Russian threat.
The impact of this war is global, as most of us now understand. We turn off the “bad news” at our own peril. The greatest risk is for Ukraine to lose this war.
