What not to expect in 2023

  

Who would have thought a return to “normal” in post-pandemic 2022 could be so... abnormal? Instead of stability, we got inflation, we got trucker convoys, we got war. For Ukraine in particular, I can only hope the next year will be better. But I’m terrible with predictions, so let’s instead look at what most definitely will not happen in 2023...

 

The Canadian economy grows at a healthy 2% GDP, the inflation rate returns to a timid 1%, and the Bank of Canada’s governor goes on a much-needed vacation. Interest rates fall, housing prices stabilize, and the price of gas nestles in at an appealing 99 cents a litre. Canadians start to wonder what in the world there was ever to worry about. Other than the threat of climate change, new covid variants from China, and potential nuclear war, things are pretty darn good. Until... 

 

Canada’s capital is stormed again, this time by granola-eating climate change protestors. Defiantly parking their over-priced Teslas and undersized Priuses in the middle of the streets of Ottawa, they demand our government ban all gas-guzzling vehicles by 2025. After honking their little horns and waving their organic plant-based banners for a day, their cars are promptly towed away and impounded. You know, the way illegal protests are normally dealt with.

 

Alberta separates from Canada. To the surprise of many, Danielle Smith’s snap referendum on whether Alberta should depart results in a convincing 51% “yes” vote, enough to begin the proceedings to become an independent oil fiefdom. But internal battles soon erupt. Sharp arguments emerge over who’s head should be on the new Albertan currency dubbed the Danni. It’s enough to cause mayhem in the new republic, including farmers with pitchforks (in this era, tractors) storming the capital. The beginnings of the new republic look doomed from the start, but Albertans couldn’t care less – they are finally freed from the oppressive hand (and hand-outs) of Ottawa. Quebecers shake their heads in disbelief.   

 

Despite Canada’s break-up, Justin Trudeau grows in popularity. Without Alberta in the mix, he’s likely a shoo-in next election, riding a wave of newfound Canadian nationalism. He seems unstoppable as he embarks on a world tour of distant foreign lands until... he gets detained at Chinese customs. Chinese authorities, who claim to have found a microgram of Canada’s finest cannabis in his carry-on, refuse to release the prime minister until they get the “two Michaels” back. Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland assures Canadians their beloved PM will, at the very latest, be back in time for the 2025 election. 

 

Will Smith is nominated once again at the Oscars. His dramatic outburst at last year’s ceremony won him Best Convincing Act of Celebrity-Entitled Rage. Fortunately for Chris Rock and other presenters, he wasn’t allowed to accept the award in person. Insiders reveal the show’s producers are trying their hardest to keep the controversy going – with sagging ratings, unexpected acts of violence are all that keep people watching. 

 

Vladimir Putin concedes the war in Ukraine was a mistake. After a spiritual epiphany during an unexpected visit by the Dalai Lama, the long-time dictator of Russia seeks peace not only for Ukraine but for his soul. In a tearful speech at UN headquarters, the former stone-cold president quotes a familiar line from Dr. Seuss: “My small heart grew three sizes that day – the true meaning of life came through, and I, Vladimir Putin, found the strength of ten Putins, plus two!” He is promptly arrested and tried for war crimes. 

 

We can only hope. Here’s to a brighter 2023! 

Grocery barons milking inflation for all its worth

 

Inflation is quite something. Just the talk of it encourages its self-perpetuation. 

This year a fine red line has been erased, allowing almost everyone to adjust their prices to more “appropriate” levels. 

That streaming platform I use? Let’s tack on another $5 per month (25% increase). 

Mushrooms – the one grocery item I’m familiar with – add another dollar per package (33% increase). 

Even the cost of developing my daughter’s school pictures has increased – there’s now a labour and fuel fee of $2 per order! 

I’m not even mentioning the price of gas, cars or bikes... Bikes, of all things, have doubled in price over the last two years. Used cars, if you’ve been looking for one, are up by more than 20%. 

I’m in a position where I can afford the extra costs, but many are not so fortunate. It’s a fine line between working for a living wage and working in poverty. Utilities alone have increased 3-5% per year on average over the last five years where I live, even before the Great Inflation of 2022. Now groceries have increased 10% year over year. These are life essentials. 

People my age have been fortunate to have low inflationary pressures for most of our adult lives, which has allowed us to borrow money to buy homes and cars for very little. That’s all changing. For the savers out there, it might be welcome news – especially those who prefer the low-risk kind of investments. GICs are finally looking attractive again. Guaranteed five percent interest? I’ll take that, even though I’m still losing out to inflation! 

But most people don’t have money lying around to invest. We’ve been conditioned by low interest rates to borrow to the max. Only now, those rates aren’t so low.

It’s ironic that to battle inflation, central banks need things to cost even more. With central banks raising interest rates a whopping 4% in one year, homes, cars and other big-ticket items cost more to pay down. One man who bought a condo in Ontario this spring said he now spends $2100 on his mortgage instead of $1400. A friend of mine said his apartment rent went up $300 per month this summer. There were no other options but to pay the 25% increase. 

It’s a little too easy, if you ask me, for those making the most to squeeze any surplus out of those making less. Like I said, once the inflation narrative takes over, look out. Some people are using it to their advantage. 

Grocery chains in particular look like the robber barons of the 19th century, with little consideration for their low-wage workers. Loblaw’s CEO Galen Weston gained popularity during the pandemic by giving his workers a two-dollar per hour pay raise during the first year of covid, but then he revoked the pay bump just as inflation began to rise. But that’s not all that was increasing – his store profits are up 30% this year thanks to the inelastic demand for higher-priced food.

It’s a little discouraging for the person making $15 an hour working at a till all day. As one middle-aged worker who was bagging my groceries told me, it’s not enough to live on. 

With today’s prices, it certainly isn’t.

Zelensky: the lone war-time president

    

The other day I watched David Letterman interview Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky. If you’re a Netflix subscriber, I’d encourage you to watch it. 

Full disclosure: I’m a fan of the president, although it wasn’t always the case. When he first came to power, I doubted he would be an effective leader. After all, we’d seen celebrities with no prior political experience come into positions of power with mixed results (to put it mildly). 

Our nephew, originally from Ukraine but now a full-fledged Canadian citizen, tried to convince me otherwise. This was a guy who would try to fix Ukraine, he told me. In other words, he would stop the corruption and make Ukraine into a modern European nation. 

That’s a tough task, but he did try. He began to reign in the power of the all-powerful oligarchs and pushed back against Russia, much to the chagrin of his chief adversary, Vladimir Putin. 

Little did he know at the time that he would become a war-time president; that he would become Ukraine's chief spokesman, pleading for Western assistance on a nearly daily basis. Since the war began, Zelensky has taken on a mesmerizing appeal, so much so he’s been anointed Time Magazine’s Person of the Year.

All that attention appears to have not gone to his head. In a Kyiv subway station underground, possibly one of the safest places to hold an interview, Zelensky responded to Letterman’s questions as if he was having a conversation with a friend. There was passionate oratory, but also unscripted humour like when he noticed Letterman was drinking from the wrong water bottle. 

It’s clear that he is not a narcissist. As much stardom as he has achieved abroad, he does not come across as attention-seeking. When Zelensky came to visit the recently liberated city of Kherson, a British journalist noted that he didn’t command the focus of attention. He simply showed his support, congratulating the troops who had made this victory possible. 

Zelenzky may in fact be a greater hero in the West than he is in his own country. We admire his courage for not fleeing his country when Kyiv was under siege, yet to most Ukrainians, he was simply doing his job. With his life on the line, he is like most Ukrainians – struggling to survive a ruthless assault. An assault that now involves regular missile strikes against civilian infrastructure is intended to literally freeze Ukrainian society into submission.  

While he has every reason to be filled with rage, it appears he hasn't allowed anger to cloud all rational thought. He acknowledges that most Russians have been deceived as they continue to support Putin in a losing battle. He also understands that a minority of Russians are too scared to voice their opposition to the war. This is life in a police state. 

It is much different in Ukraine, where even comedians can be elected to office. Though the circumstances allow for fewer jokes, he did share one with Letterman, related to the war of course. He said he tries to smile every day, thankful that he is alive, but one can see in his eyes that he longs for an end. He joked that he would one day like to go the beach and drink a beer.  

When that day will come is uncertain – not even Zelensky would venture a guess. The best beaches in Ukraine, the ones my wife used to go to as a child, are still under Russian occupation.