The end of history has just begun

  

As the Cold War came to an end in 1991, some felt an era of world peace and prosperity was finally here. This belief was reflected in an influential essay by Francis Fukuyama entitled, “The End of History?”  Before the Soviet Union even fell, he wrote about a new golden age of liberal democratic governance, where dictatorships across the globe would eventually disappear. 

Over the next decade, the Western world did experience relative peace and prosperity. But for post-Soviet republics, these years were tumultuous. As my sister-in-law from Ukraine once said to me in terminology I would understand: “When the Soviet Union collapsed, it was game over.”  

We like to think the end of communism brought economic liberation to countries like Ukraine and Russia, but it didn’t – at least not in the short term. The transition to capitalism was sudden, filled with policy mistakes and corruption. As oligarchs amassed enormous wealth, peoples’ pensions disappeared. Even my wife’s father, a high-ranking government official, was not immune to the eventual loss of life savings. Rampant inflation nearly destroyed post-Soviet economies in the late 1990s. 

It was from this desolation that a new leader emerged named Vladimir Putin. A former KGB officer, he longed for the days of the Soviet Empire, when his nation was strong and commanded the attention of the world.  

Yet over the next decade of his rule, Russia remained largely irrelevant. Economically, its growth was dwarfed by emerging economies like China and India. Militarily, it was spending only a fraction of what the U.S. spent annually. Putin appeared to be harmless. Only presidential Republican candidate Mitt Romney sounded the alarm bells about Russia. No one else seemed to pay much attention. 

Then came 2014, when Russia overtook parts of Ukraine. This was part of a reaction to the ouster of Ukraine’s current president after his decision to align closer with Russia instead of the European Union. He was Putin’s puppet and many Ukrainians were opposed. 

Not all Ukrainians, mind you. At that point in time, some Ukrainians in southern and eastern Ukraine were still closely allied with Russia. What harm could come with aligning closer with a nation that could also provide an economic boost to a poorer neighbour? 

No one could have foreseen the future. No one expected Ukraine’s “brother” to act like a brute. Before the 2014 invasion, as our Ukrainian nephew speculated, Ukraine could have maybe fallen to Russia because it was divided. But not after. 

Over the last decade, as Russia waged war on its former ally, Putin’s true KGB colours came to the fore. His government conducted an elaborate doping scheme to give Russian athletes the edge in the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics. If you forgot why Russian Olympic athletes can no longer compete under their nation's flag, this is why.  

In 2016, Russia meddled in the U.S. election by leaking damaging emails about Hillary Clinton and using social media to influence voters. Putin knew a dictatorial friend when he saw one: Donald Trump fit the bill better than anyone could have ever imagined. 

But still, the Western world remained largely uninterested in Russia. Until February 24, 2022. Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine came at a moment when the world was still benefiting from the peace dividends of the end of the Cold War.  

The war in Ukraine may be a harbinger of conflicts to come. China’s invasion of Tawain appears to be only a matter of time. The U.S., which has an even larger stake in Tawain given its technological value, will be challenged to defend this small island state. 

China’s goals are ideological and not rational, as the immediate economic fallout will likely be severe. But it won’t matter to its leader. Just like with Russia, dictatorial regimes can become side-tracked by grandiose projects and personal ambitions. There is no one – not even their own people – who can stop them. 

It’s the beginning of a new history – one filled with uncertainty and military growth – but hopefully not the end of the liberal, democratic world. 

Fragile hope after two years war

  

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. 

At this point in the war, Ukraine should have been retaking territory. With Western aid pouring in, 2023 should have been a turning point, leading to the demise of a dictator who savagely invaded a sovereign nation. 

Instead, we have a country that’s still fighting for its existence. Ammunition, morale, and troops are all running low. 

Perhaps the world has forgotten how lopsided this war is. Economically, Russia is ten times the size of Ukraine. They have vast natural resources that continue to fill their coffers in times of war. A good portion of the world, including Western nations, still trades with them. Countries like Iran and North Korea supply missiles and drones that wreak havoc on the lives of innocent civilians almost every day. 

Russia is ruled by a dictator who can quash opposition, either by fiery death – like Yevgeny Prigozhin, former head of the Wagner Group who attempted a coup – or imprisonment – like Alexei Navalny, leader of an opposition party, now deceased after being sent to a penal colony in Siberia.  

Russia’s media is controlled by government, where few opposing views are allowed. Even Western journalists must be careful what they report, lest they be imprisoned like Evan Gershkovich of the Wall Street Journal. Thousands who initially protested the war in Ukraine have been silenced by jail time or fines. Freedom of speech in Russia is now officially dead. 

American military support is faltering because Republican leadership would rather cater to its most fervent Trumpian base than oppose a brutal dictator. It was during Donald Trump’s presidency that dictators became friends, transforming the party’s view of Russia from an adversary into a potential ally; an ally whose leader has an arrest warrant under the International Criminal Court. 

Until recently, the E.U. also faltered in its aid to Ukraine thanks to another Trumpian figure in Hungary, where President Victor Orban held 26 nations hostage to Vladimir Putin’s demands. 

Putin was counting on this all along. The pundits who cover Russia were correct: Putin rarely loses when playing the long game. So single-minded in his pursuits, he is willing to risk his country’s future to control more land; the economic, political, and legal consequences be damned. 

For individual Ukrainians, it leaves for an uncertain future. Many who left when the war began have chosen to return. Better to be at home than a stranger in another country. For others, it means starting a new life abroad, as is the case for my sister-in-law and her husband. With little English and no assets (it’s impossible to sell their property now), no one expects to start over again when nearing retirement, but they do so with courage. 

They would love to return home to see if their apartment is still standing, but they can’t – they live across from the Zaporizhya power plant still controlled by Russia. Not only is the plant at risk of failing should an accident occur, but Russian soldiers fire rockets at their town almost daily. 

The young Ukrainian woman who lived with us for a year decided last minute to stay in Canada. As much as she loves Ukraine, living near Kyiv with her family still holds risk and the economic prospects of a country at war remain dim. 

Putin has not ruled out a second attempt to retake Ukraine’s capital. I have no doubt he would jump at the opportunity should Western support crumble. The slow pace of western weaponry entering Ukraine in the first year of war gave Russia the opportunity to build up defenses and hold on to the Ukrainian land it now occupies. American military support, already temporarily halted by Congress, could end completely if Trump wins the presidency this fall (gulp). 

I don’t want to be too pessimistic, as there are some indications of brighter days ahead. The E.U. recently announced $54 billion in economic aid to Ukraine. Unrest is building in Russia because of the war, and Putin, who likely suffers from a mysterious illness, could die (he has died many times based on news reports). If all the stars align, an elderly Joe Biden could also win re-election this fall, with Democrats winning back the House of Representatives. 

Based on current trends, however, I’ll temper my optimism. 

Football soothes my soul

  

I like football. 

I know not why. I don’t watch any other sports; not basketball, not baseball, not even hockey. 

But football... I’ve watched since I was young. Back in the 1980s, if we were lucky, we’d get three televised Saskatchewan Roughriders games a year. The rest were on radio. Yes, as a young boy, I even listened to football. 

The ultimate experience of my youth was going to watch the Roughriders play at Taylor Field. We would travel for four hours to a city called Regina for a three-hour game and then drive another four hours home. To watch them lose. Every single time. It was the 1990s, after all, a dismal period when telethons were needed to pay players’ salaries and tickets were, at most, five bucks a pop resale. 

The losing was so bad that, in my childhood innocence, I wondered what it would be like to leave Taylor Field after a win. Would there be less cursing? Would fans be less drunk? Only much later in life would I find this not to be the case. 

I was at the game where well-respected coach Wally Buono gave our fans the finger for throwing beer cans at his team. I was in the stands, singing with the fans in the rain, when a lightning strike halted the game just as we were mounting a comeback. Apparently, not even God wanted the Roughriders to win. 

Football fans in this province are invested. I’ve been to an NFL game where I was perplexed by the lack of passion and foul language coming from the crowd. I’m convinced there must be a history of losing over and over again to make fans want to burn the stadium down. Football fanaticism (not to be confused with fascism) is part of our culture. 

To be honest though, I don’t enjoy all the yelling at games anymore. I prefer the quietness of my downstairs cavern, where it’s just me... yelling at the TV.  

While some games are stressful, I find that football improves my overall mental state. It’s not a stretch to say that the NFL kept me sane during the first year of the pandemic. With all the turmoil society went through – the isolation, the uncertainty, the lack of toilet paper – at least we had football. It saved me hundreds of dollars in therapy. 

Unlike the CFL, which was battered by the loss of fans, the NFL could survive on TV contracts alone, now worth $10 billion a year. The NFL Network continues to run every day of the year, showing that there’s always drama, whether it involves trades, the draft, or Aaron Rodgers explaining how to use horse deworming medication to treat covid. 

In December, the NFL had Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday games. That’s 57% of my week covered. They didn’t even leave Christmas alone – on the most sacred religious U.S. holiday, football games ran for nine straight hours. And no, I didn’t watch all of them. 

Do I support the ludicrous amount of public funds to build multi-million/billion-dollar stadiums amid housing shortages and chronic homelessness? Not really. Sigh. I just like to watch the games. 

And the biggest one will soon be upon us. This Super Bowl, it’s expected that over 100 million people will tune in worldwide. Some will watch solely for the commercials that now cost seven million dollars per half-minute. Some will watch for the halftime show. Some might even watch just to catch a glimpse of a jet-lagged Miss Swift. Whatever. 

I’ll watch the game.  

Because I like football.