It wasn’t supposed to be this way.
At this point in the war, Ukraine should have been retaking territory. With Western aid pouring in, 2023 should have been a turning point, leading to the demise of a dictator who savagely invaded a sovereign nation.
Instead, we have a country that’s still fighting for its existence. Ammunition, morale, and troops are all running low.
Perhaps the world has forgotten how lopsided this war is. Economically, Russia is ten times the size of Ukraine. They have vast natural resources that continue to fill their coffers in times of war. A good portion of the world, including Western nations, still trades with them. Countries like Iran and North Korea supply missiles and drones that wreak havoc on the lives of innocent civilians almost every day.
Russia is ruled by a dictator who can quash opposition, either by fiery death – like Yevgeny Prigozhin, former head of the Wagner Group who attempted a coup – or imprisonment – like Alexei Navalny, leader of an opposition party, now deceased after being sent to a penal colony in Siberia.
Russia’s media is controlled by government, where few opposing views are allowed. Even Western journalists must be careful what they report, lest they be imprisoned like Evan Gershkovich of the Wall Street Journal. Thousands who initially protested the war in Ukraine have been silenced by jail time or fines. Freedom of speech in Russia is now officially dead.
American military support is faltering because Republican leadership would rather cater to its most fervent Trumpian base than oppose a brutal dictator. It was during Donald Trump’s presidency that dictators became friends, transforming the party’s view of Russia from an adversary into a potential ally; an ally whose leader has an arrest warrant under the International Criminal Court.
Until recently, the E.U. also faltered in its aid to Ukraine thanks to another Trumpian figure in Hungary, where President Victor Orban held 26 nations hostage to Vladimir Putin’s demands.
Putin was counting on this all along. The pundits who cover Russia were correct: Putin rarely loses when playing the long game. So single-minded in his pursuits, he is willing to risk his country’s future to control more land; the economic, political, and legal consequences be damned.
For individual Ukrainians, it leaves for an uncertain future. Many who left when the war began have chosen to return. Better to be at home than a stranger in another country. For others, it means starting a new life abroad, as is the case for my sister-in-law and her husband. With little English and no assets (it’s impossible to sell their property now), no one expects to start over again when nearing retirement, but they do so with courage.
They would love to return home to see if their apartment is still standing, but they can’t – they live across from the Zaporizhya power plant still controlled by Russia. Not only is the plant at risk of failing should an accident occur, but Russian soldiers fire rockets at their town almost daily.
The young Ukrainian woman who lived with us for a year decided last minute to stay in Canada. As much as she loves Ukraine, living near Kyiv with her family still holds risk and the economic prospects of a country at war remain dim.
Putin has not ruled out a second attempt to retake Ukraine’s capital. I have no doubt he would jump at the opportunity should Western support crumble. The slow pace of western weaponry entering Ukraine in the first year of war gave Russia the opportunity to build up defenses and hold on to the Ukrainian land it now occupies. American military support, already temporarily halted by Congress, could end completely if Trump wins the presidency this fall (gulp).
I don’t want to be too pessimistic, as there are some indications of brighter days ahead. The E.U. recently announced $54 billion in economic aid to Ukraine. Unrest is building in Russia because of the war, and Putin, who likely suffers from a mysterious illness, could die (he has died many times based on news reports). If all the stars align, an elderly Joe Biden could also win re-election this fall, with Democrats winning back the House of Representatives.
Based on current trends, however, I’ll temper my optimism.
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