This past week it was plus ten in Regina. Plus 10! We broke the 1931 record by five degrees. Five degrees! This is the same city that, for a day, held the title of coldest place on earth. I know this because I was there!
It's not so cold anymore -- anywhere. Eleven of 12 months in 2023 were the hottest on record worldwide.
In Canada, we kind of welcome it. Let's be honest, climate change suits us quite well on the Prairies. Other than the forest fires and drought, um, it’s okay?
Every year, the changes become more visible and real. So every once in a while, I like to refresh my understanding of the facts on climate change, as best we know them today. Allow me to share what I think I know...
On our current trajectory of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions, we will cause the earth’s temperature to rise 2.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100. Currently, we’re at 1.4 degrees above normal, although this year could exceed 1.5 degrees because of El Nino, a Pacific oceanic warming that goes in cycles. For the past three years we had a cooler ocean (La Nina) which tended to suppress the warming effects of climate change. Now we’re feeling the full effects plus more.
That doesn’t mean that cold temperature records won’t be broken, as we experienced earlier in January. But these events are now far fewer now than the high temperature records. Particularly in northern latitudes, we’ll see big changes in average temperatures over the next few decades.
We can also expect to experience more intense, violent weather. The warmer the world, the more extreme weather events tend to become. That doesn’t mean we can attribute any one extreme weather event to climate change, but again, it’s about the overall trends.
While Western nations have a significant role to play in reducing their own emissions, growing economies in Africa, South America and India will have an over-sized impact on climate change over the next few decades. Their share of greenhouse gases will eventually exceed all developed countries and China, the biggest worldwide emitter at the moment. The hope is that these developing economies utilize less carbon-intensive forms of energy as they grow, but it will take time to transition.
Ironically, as these countries become less carbon intensive, less air pollution will also contribute to a warmer world. The harmful particulates from coal-fired power plants and gas-powered vehicles are masking the current effects of climate change by almost a full degree Celsius. By cleaning the air, we will unleash the sun’s full power and cause even warmer temperatures. (I know, we just can’t win.)
As for Canada’s impact on climate change, it will be minimal. Even our biggest climate change policy to date, the carbon tax, will be a drop in the bucket when it comes to cutting worldwide emissions. When carbon is priced at $170 per tonne and gas is 26 cents a litre higher than today, we will reduce our country’s emissions slightly, but nothing material at the global level.
Seeing how much opposition there is against our current carbon tax of $65 per tonne, it’s doubtful that $170 per tonne will even be achieved. Perhaps we should have taken our cue from the U.S. which decided to invest billions in renewable energy instead of taxing consumers. It’s not as efficient as a carbon tax, but more politically palatable. I say this as someone who whole-heartedly embraced the carbon tax when it was first implemented (I still love my rebate).
So how will emissions be curbed? From what I understand, investments in new technologies are the most realistic solution. Technological advances in renewables, battery power and carbon dioxide removal will hopefully save the world from the most catastrophic scenarios, like warming of over three degrees Celsius.
While an average increase of a few degrees may sound small, it’s a significant global increase over a very short period. Not to be a total Debbie Downer (ha!), but since there are naysayers out there, let’s be clear: Over the next century, climate change will threaten coastal cities, wildlife, and agriculture worldwide. As much as we may enjoy it, plus 10 in Regina in January is not normal. We are introducing a significant risk to human life, particularly to the future of our children and grandchildren.
Investments today could save a world of hurt tomorrow.
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