Ukraine can only hope

  

The last thing Ukrainians want is a war with Russia – a conflict that could destroy lives and livelihoods. 

The Russian invasion of 2014 inflicted enough damage, killing an estimated 14,000 people, wreaking havoc on their economy and devaluing their currency that has not since recovered. 

At that time, Russian President Vladimir Putin took advantage of internal conflicts to pursue his agenda, taking hold of portions of Ukraine that have historically been pro-Russia. It at least gave the façade of choice by the people of those regions.  

Views on Russia have drastically changed since that time. Once viewed as a “brother,” as my wife’s brother-in-law from Ukraine once said, the typical Ukrainian now views Russia with suspicion and distrust. 

Our nephew from Ukraine fought in the war in 2014, spending 45 days in the frontline's trenches. He now lives in Canada with us, going to school to start a new life. Although he was willing to stay in the military, a well-paid position by Ukrainian standards, we’re thankful he quit at the end of his contract. 

There are few good options for a country like Ukraine. If Russia invades, Ukraine will fight with its limited military resources, but could be easily overcome without Western aid. If Western nations should choose to wage war on Ukrainian soil, millions of lives will be put in danger, including people we know. 

But if they don’t push back, then what? Putin gets to divide and conquer at will? Should the West simply chalk it up to another meaningless country’s destruction, a nation without oil and valued resources? 

The U.S. has threatened further sanctions, but to date they’ve had little effect. With oil rising to $100 per barrel, Putin has plenty of resources available. Not only that, he has European countries over the barrel (literally) because of their dependence on his country’s natural gas supply. Germany recently shut down its zero-emission nuclear power plants to import more dirty gas from Russia, with a new pipeline set to bypass Ukraine in the next year. 

Russia also has the backing of China which, as I understand, is watching the situation closely to see how easily it could overtake autonomous countries like Taiwan.  

This is the predicament the world finds itself in as autocratic regimes fill in the vacuum left by the United States, a superpower unwilling to commit to another foreign fiasco. European and Canadian governments are just as unwilling to appear aggressive when Russia is standing with a rifle at Ukraine’s doorstep. The West, and those countries under its sphere of influence, are now being pushed around by a weaker power that uses cunning to play the long game of gradual geopolitical expansion. 

As much as I’ve opposed military action, the Western alliance of countries still plays a role in maintaining world stability and promoting democracy abroad. Once it fails, many pieces fall with it. 

Not only is Ukraine at risk of losing a functioning democracy (they elected a comedian as president, for goodness' sake – what greater evidence do we need that democracy works?), but of being subservient to a foreign power. 

Putin may invade Ukraine and may even be successful at deposing their elected government. But I wonder how he expects to win the minds of the population, filled with a new sense of resentment and rage. 

This offers one reason to hope he will hold back. It seems the only thing Ukrainians can do at this point is hope.