Climate cliff is steep

            I’ve gone full circle on the whole climate change issue. 

In my early twenties, I was convinced we only had a few good years of life left on this planet. I’m not sure why, but as a university student it was easier to say Earth was going to hell in a hand basket. 

Then I grew older, got married, and realized things weren’t that bad. I started to believe in the inescapability of climate change and that we had merely to adapt. The likes of Bjorn Lomborg, the self-proclaimed skeptical environmentalist, appealed to me. A warming world meant fewer deaths from the cold, he reassured me. 

It’s true, the environmental movement is full of alarmists, many of whom didn’t account for the vast improvement in human living conditions worldwide. Genetically modified crops and inorganic food continue to feed the world. Life expectancies are increasing. Poverty has been alleviated significantly through economic development, most of which would not have been possible without fossil fuels. 

As David Attenborough reveals in his latest documentary, we have lived in a golden age. Since the 1950s, global air travel allowed Attenborough to visit the most remote and pristine parts of the Earth, where he documented unseen worlds to an audience getting its first glimpse of our planet’s bounty. 

But as so often happens, our technological growth has come at nature’s expense.  

As Attenborough walks us through the years of his own life, he shows how biodiversity and wilderness areas have declined. Rainforests have been destroyed, oceans have been over-harvested and species have been lost forever. This alone should raise alarm, particularly as our global population has yet to peak. Two billion more humans in 40 years will require that much more of Earth’s resources. 

But even then, if that were all we had to deal with, we could probably manage. We could find ways to protect species and habitat, to reduce growth in strategic ways, and to simply survive with less of nature’s bounty. Not ideal by any means, but there would be a path forward. 

Climate change throws a wrench into things. It compounds all the issues into something far bigger than humanity has ever confronted. It’s one of those wicked issues that cannot be solved with a simple flick of a switch – in this case, a switch that could turn everything off. 

This past year we’ve seen the impact of shutting things down, with the poorest and vulnerable being hit the hardest. A gradual transition to renewable energy would be best, but that should have started decades ago. As we near the point of no return when it comes to climatic positive feedback loops, we may not have another choice but to make a hard stop. Like with the pandemic, hardship today could save so many lives in the future. 

As Attenborough stresses, this is not just about saving nature, although we could make the argument that this is reason enough. This is really about saving humanity. The impacts on economies, societies and human life will be severe. 

We’re already seeing the effects of a one degree change in temperature, never mind the three degrees projected by 2100. The momentous wildfires of 2020, like those in Australia, Siberia and California, are the most visible harbingers of what’s to come.  

But for the most part, changes in Earth’s systems are invisible to us. The acidification of oceans, loss of coral reefs, and melting of northern permafrost are out of sight, out of mind. Like with covid, we might think it’s safe to continue with life as we know it because we aren't personally affected.

Or put our faith in technology. Perhaps safer nuclear power holds promise alongside vast investments in renewable energy, but I’m far more skeptical of schemes like pumping sulfur dioxide into the sky to reflect the sun’s heat back into space. This solution, which is seriously being considered, would be like setting off a supervolcano to permanently taint the sky. 

As we cruise towards the climate cliff, it sometimes feels like we’re building a home-made parachute with little knowledge of whether it can hold us, rather than actually trying to slow down. Perhaps we should try decelerating first, because that cliff is looking pretty steep. 

After seeing the global impact of a tiny rogue virus this past year, I no longer think I’m being alarmist.