As I get older, the heat doesn’t bother me as much. Plus 30? Bring it on. On a strictly personal level, climate change suits me just fine.
My teenaged daughter, on the other hand, has an aversion to heat, where any day above 25 is considered life-threatening. She starts withering in July. I’ve come to learn there’s a limit to any outdoor activity with her after 10 a.m.
Much to her chagrin, the Prairies saw their share of 30-degree weather this year, starting in June. Did I mention her school doesn’t have air conditioning?
Last summer felt even hotter, so I was a little surprised when a meteorologist said temperatures on the Prairies were only on average one degree above normal. It felt at least five degrees hotter.
It’s a similar shock when people learn that the earth has only warmed 1.3 degrees Celsius due to global warming. That’s it? one might think. What are we worried about!?
As it turns out, averages reflect massive changes on a global scale. An average global increase of two degrees could result in a non-reversible tipping point – when many ecosystems can no longer cope with the change in temperatures. On our current trajectory, we can expect a 2.7 degree increase by 2100.
This September broke records by a long shot, with global temperatures 1.7 to 1.8 degrees above the preindustrial average. This surprised even climate scientists, one calling the warming "absolutely gobsmackingly bananas." This terminology, while unscientific, could easily become part of our new era's lexicon. We have no idea what we're getting into when altering climate at this rate.
The most common counterargument is that the earth has warmed before; that humans have survived heating/cooling throughout earth’s history. And we have. Thousands of years ago there was an ice age, where glaciers extended into the United States. They left behind lakes and scars across the landscape that are easily identified from the sky. At the ice age’s peak, 20,000 years ago, the earth’s average temperature was five to six degrees Celsius cooler than what it is today.
One can only imagine how our lives would be disrupted should another ice age occur. Agriculture and ecosystems would be significantly impacted. Given enough time though – like a few thousand years – we would gradually adapt.
We don’t have that kind of time. We have eight billion people dependent on ecosystems that are already under pressure.
The earth can survive a two degree increase in warming – that's not to the problem. It will recover. The wildlife around Chernobyl is recovering – the animals may glow at night (that’s an exaggeration), but they’re still thriving without humans. Humans would rather not have the cancer and deformities that could result from living in the area, but animals have no choice.
As humans, our thresholds for tolerable change are low. A few degrees temperature change indoors and we crank up the AC. There’s a very fine line, and we use technology keep ourselves as comfortable as possible
But there are limits. There are limits to water efficiency, to cooling, and to the amount of smoke we can endure each summer due to wildfires. Interestingly, our forests have been net carbon dioxide emitters for the last twenty years due to increased wildfire activity.
There’s also the question of how much wildlife we want to exterminate in our lifetime. Are we okay with 10 to 20 percent fewer species by 2100? Destruction of habitat is an issue unto itself, with climate change only augmenting the pressures.
About 10 years ago, a fair-minded Canadian environmentalist suggested we'll only start seeing the significant impacts of climate change after 2050. We’re obviously seeing the effects already, but assuming the very serious impacts will begin then... I’ll be 73 (fingers crossed), but my daughter will still be younger than I am now. Her kids may be teenagers.
I’m guessing there will be more to worry about than a lack of air conditioning in schools.
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