Dictatorship has a downside

 

If there’s one thing the Russian invasion of Ukraine speaks to, it’s the destructive nature of dictatorships.  

The destruction in Ukraine is apparent: Billions and billions of dollars' worth of property damage and thousands of lives lost. In Canada, we get concerned when our mortgage goes up by $50 a month. For many in Ukraine, they no longer have a home to go back to. 

This is the power of dictatorship. There's no way Russia could have pulled this off with a free press; with Russian reporters on the ground reporting on Russian and Ukrainian lives lost. This is Vietnam on steroids. This is not some foreign venture in a country where people look different and speak a different language. This is like crossing the fence into your neighbour’s backyard and firing a shotgun at his house. 

The difference is that we would be immediately jailed. Vladimir Putin, a war criminal if ever there was one, will unlikely die in a prison cell. 

But he will be weakened. On the world stage, he's falling into the grasp of another dictator, a much more powerful one. Once again, the Russian people have no idea what they’re getting into. New Russians – middle class and wealthy elites – who live like New Yorkers in Moscow and St. Petersburg – are oriented toward the West. They enjoy going to school, buying properties, and vacationing in Europe and the United States. China is literally thousands of miles away from them, holding about as much appeal to them as Siberia.

By invading Ukraine, Putin has inadvertently signed them up as a junior partner with a power that will have about as much mercy on them as any other indebted nation (and they will be indebted by the end of this). At some point in time, oil and gas may flow from Russia to China instead of Europe, but at what cost and discounted price? Putin should know: Dictators don’t play by the same rules. 

So how do these men (and they’re all men so far) get so much power? Dictators, clever beasts of persuasion, rarely appear as evil as they later become. They enter power as an appealing alternative to the wishy-washy debates of democratic discourse. They are strong and charismatic and may even have the ability to lift their country to new heights. But more than anything, they exude certainty. The general public loves certainty. None of this rambling about policy options and alternatives, like our democratically elected leaders sometimes mumble about in front of the microphone. Dictators know exactly what they want and what is best for their country and in particular, their political base.  

But it never stops there. The longer they remain, the more it becomes about what is best for them. 

After killing freedom of the press and any legitimate opposition, Putin can now do whatever he wants. Russian propaganda has convinced Russians that their family members in Ukraine are under the control of neo-Nazis. Not even their Ukrainian relatives can convince them otherwise. 

It’s true that democracies can also make crucial errors and use propaganda to great effect. But there are checks and balances. The free press can make all the difference in a government trying to cover up scandal or hide information. One has only to look at the Pentagon Papers and its impact on the Vietnam War. 

But most critically, a healthy democracy depends on an engaged public. Our Golden Age is almost too good, in that we’ve forgotten how bad things can get. Ukrainians are willing to die for freedom. The average North American is more like, “Meh, so long as I have low gas prices, I’m happy.” This indifference is heard on the political left and right. Some have glibly said that if we had an autocratic regime like in China, we could solve economic and environmental issues more easily (even though it’s patently false). Justin Trudeau suggested this before he became prime minister – I hope he’s learned better since. 

Or we might say that Donald Trump, an autocrat in the making, is worth voting for because he “gives us what we want.” As in, the ends justifies the means – namely conservative Supreme Court justices. This is enough for many to turn a blind eye to his blatant attack on a legitimate election, threatening the very foundations of their democracy. 

Dictators need support to become who they are, which they get from their most loyal followers. Until it comes to the point, as in the case of Putin, where they really don’t need anyone. 

When one man controls the show, you never know where you might end up. He has you in his grasp, in good times and bad, and may lead you (and the world) down a very scary road indeed.