My election prediction (with qualifiers)

There’s a reason why respected writers don’t predict election results. If they’re wrong, their credibility takes a hit. 

Fortunately, I have very little credibility. As we all know, Thomas Mulcair is not our prime minister and Hillary Clinton is not the president of the United States (if you needed a reminder). So here it goes... 

I’ll base my federal election prediction not on polling or gut instincts, but on some key factors that have been identified in predicting presidential elections in the United States. I believe most of them also apply to Canada. 

Allan Lichtman, an American historian, has developed a seemingly fail-safe method to determine who will win the White House since the 1990s. He accurately predicted the loss of Al Gore to George W. Bush in 2000 and the victory of Donald Trump in 2016.  

Lichtman bases his predictions on 13 factors, of which I’ll focus on a few to predict what will happen tomorrow.

First, there’s incumbency. Justin Trudeau is the incumbent and typically, after four years, the electorate is not ready to boot out the party in power. Particularly at the federal level, this is rare. One has to look back to the 1930s when the Conservatives under R.B. Bennett lasted only one term (thanks to the Depression) and in 1979, when the Conservatives under Joe Clark lasted less than a year (an anomaly in an election where Clark failed to win the popular vote). But as for the Liberal Party, a one-term government occurred only once in the 1870s. Advantage, Trudeau. 

Lichtman also takes into account the charisma of the incumbent versus the challenger - in this case, Andrew Scheer. Now as much as we hate him dressing up in costumes, on the charisma trait, I'd have to say that Trudeau defeats Scheer in a landslide. Scheer is more, shall we say, measured.

Next, the economy. While the economy is largely out of the control of any government, it plays a big role in whether a leader retains power. The Canadian economy, for the most part, is still moving forward in 2019, with the most jobs created in a nine-month period since 2002. This also favours Trudeau. 

Another factor, which I found interesting, is whether the incumbent has affected major changes in national policy. If he or she hasn’t, it’s a strike against them. In the case of Trudeau, major policy changes include the legalization of marijuana, the introduction of the carbon tax, and a change in refugee policy. Whether you agree with them or not, based on Lichtman’s model, they benefit Trudeau. 

Social unrest and foreign/military failures are additional factors. While there have been spats with foreign countries (the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, for instance), I would argue they've been relatively minor and don’t hurt Trudeau’s re-election prospects. 

Finally, there’s the scandal factor. This is a big one, the one factor that hurts Trudeau’s chances. It’s the same factor, says Lichtman, that could tip the scales against Trump in 2020. In Trudeau’s case, the SNC-Lavalin affair qualifies as a scandal. And as we’ve seen in the polling, it damaged his brand.

But this alone has not ended his chances of winning re-election. Lichtman says an incumbent must fail on at least six of the thirteen factors. As honestly as I can evaluate, Trudeau fails on only one. 

Hence my prediction (drum roll, please): Trudeau wins re-election. (I know, I'm really sticking my neck out here.)

This isn’t a commentary on whether Trudeau has been good or bad for the country, it’s simply an attempt to use a proven model. What it can’t take into account, however, is the Canadian Parliamentary system that has third, fourth, fifth and sixth(!) parties, and the potential for minority governments.  

Current polling suggests Trudeau may win a minority government. Polls also suggested Hillary Clinton would be the next president of the United States (if you needed a reminder).

My credibility may take another hit....