White America is growing old

As white America, led by President Trump, contemplates a war against immigration, perhaps it should pause to consider the alternative: A stagnating economy where the elderly will one day outnumber the working class. 

Such is the case in Japan, a homogenous, non-immigrant society that has been battling the economic woes of deflation for the last 20 years. Its population began to officially decline in 2010, with 600,000 fewer citizens every year. 

Population decline has become a political issue, with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe making it a priority to keep Japan's citizenry over 100 million. The threshold is shockingly low, considering its current population is 126 million. Yet if trends continue, the country will have only 83 million people by 2100 – a significant reduction for a nation that is already overshadowed by China's one billion. 

Japan's remarkably long life expectancy is the only thing slowing the decline. Interestingly, deflation benefits the elderly (their pensions are worth more with time) while hurting younger people who are trying to find a job and start a family.  

It's a vicious cycle. When populations age and decline, economies shrink, creating a snowball effect that can lead to lower spending over time. This is certainly the case in Japan, stemming back to its 1992 stock market crash. The exuberance of the '80s ended in a period of stagnation, lacking an infusion of immigrants and foreign investments to make up for the domestic malaise. 

In her book, Day of Empire: How hyperpowers rise to global dominance – and why they fall, Amy Chua presents a compelling argument that the longest enduring world superpowers have been those that are tolerant and welcoming of new peoples. It is when they become insular and exclusive that their decline begins.  

Unlike Japan, the U.S. is a prime example of a superpower with open borders, historically scooping up talent from across the globe. Canada and the U.S. attract immigrants at a rapid rate, ensuring our populations continue to rise. Most importantly, these newcomers fill roles that would otherwise go unfilled, whether they be low-wage service jobs or high-paying positions requiring advanced degrees. 

 But the U.S. could also be on the verge of decline; certainly if it remakes itself as a nation of old, white people. A declining life expectancy (the first time in decades) and low birth rates mean whites will soon be outnumbered. They are a dying breed, and will no longer be the primary engine of American growth in their nursing homes. 

Now granted, there are some benefits to less people. Having lived in Saskatchewan, where population decline is a perennial issue, I can think of a few. There's less traffic, lower housing prices, and.... maybe even more wildlife. 

This appears to be the case in Japan, anyway, where wild boars are making a resurgence, reclaiming areas where humans no longer live. Local farmers say there aren't enough people to scare them away.  

Boar sightings are becoming more frequent in the big cities, too. Kyoto, a city of over one million, has had ten wild boar encounters in the last year. Two boars even charged into a high school last December, which would've made for an interesting gym class. 

It turns out that human depopulation can be a boon to nature.  

If that's the case, President Trump may be an ardent environmentalist after all.