Don't hold your breath: My US election prediction is in

  

There are few people who correctly predict American presidential elections, but Allan Lichtman is one of them. Since the 1980s, this historian has used 13 “keys to the White House” to accurately predict who will win (except for one or two elections, depending on what he claimed to predict – the popular vote or the electoral college??) The keys include metrics like the state of the economy and the charisma of each candidate. Based on this year’s indicators, he predicts the next American president will be... Kamala Harris. 

Let me just say, there’s always a first (or second or third) time to be wrong. Let’s be honest, predicting this election with 100% confidence is next to impossible. It’s why most people who write for media outlets dare not predict the outcome. Your credibility could take a big hit. 

But, like Lichtman, I am not hindered, largely because my credibility is already shot. As a reminder, I predicted Thomas I-can-win-with-a-beard Mulcair would win the 2015 Canadian election. Instead, Justin The-budget-will-balance-itself Trudeau came out victorious. I predicted Hillary Let’s-rent-a-huge-facility-with-a-glass-ceiling-because-I'm-going-to-break-it Clinton would win the 2016 US election. Instead, Donald Locker-room-talk Trump became the next president. I didn't predict Joe How-did-I-end-up-here-anyway? Biden would win the 2020 election because I was too scared to say anything. He won it without my help. 

This year I’m going to give Trump some “help” with my prediction – the ultimate electoral jinx. Since the entire universe rides on my predictions, here it goes: Donald Trump will win the 2024 US presidential election.  

There, I said it. As much as it pains me to write this, there are legitimate reasons why this could become reality. The polls, after all, show a statistical tie, meaning each candidate has a 50% chance of winning. That's a flip of a coin. When he faced off against Clinton, Trump had a 33% chance of winning.  

Which brings me to my next point: Trump consistently overperforms the polls. He did it in 2016 and again in 2020. Biden attracted more Democratic voters than Clinton, which pushed him over the top, but it was still much closer than polls had predicted. 

Third, he’s a straight white rich man. Sorry, but that’s a huge advantage. Because of his biology and quasi-billionaire look, he can get away with saying almost anything. Post-election analysis showed that Barack Obama lost 2% of the vote across the Midwest because he was Black. He still won, but in these states he had to win by 2% more than John McCain and Mitt Romney to overcome that racial disadvantage. How much more will Kamala Harris have to overcome because she’s both Black and a woman?  

Lastly, Americans’ number one issue is still the economy. While things have been getting better and the US is far ahead of Europe and other countries in job and GDP growth, Americans still feel left behind. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that inflation and high interest rates have ruined some peoples’ lives. And for some reason, millions of Americans think Trump, who hasn’t met a tariff he doesn’t like, is an economic miracle worker. Again, it’s that quasi-billionaire look. 

All that said, Harris might win. Even though I have openly declared that she will undoubtedly lose, she might make American history next week. But for that to happen, Democratic voters will need to be more motivated than the last two elections. 

It could happen. This is the first presidential election since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. In the 2022 midterms, Republicans underperformed the polls, which may happen again.

Harris may also attract people who were otherwise not interested in politics to come out and vote. She appeals to young women in particular. If enough new voters come out like they did for Obama, they could push her across the finish line. On the other hand, I’ve heard that Trump is doing quite well with uneducated young men... 

So, to repeat, Harris will lose. (Are you listening, Universe?) 

If all goes through as planned, my credibility will remain in the dumpster, but I will be one happy man.