With nothing to lose, Ukraine pokes the bear

  

I’m no military strategist, but I'd say Ukraine’s recent incursion into southwestern Russia is a strategic win. 

Not that I advocate more destruction and loss of innocent lives, but I see no other way. Just as the Allies of World War II didn't hesitate to destroy military and civilian targets (Berlin was bombed 363 times), so Ukraine gives Russia a taste of its medieval medicine.

Ukraine’s retaliatory invasion is miniscule compared to the total area Russia seized from Ukraine in 2022: 1,000 square kilometres of Russian land compared to 45,000 of Ukrainian territory. Still, this is twice as much area as Russia took from Ukraine in all of 2023. 

From a Ukrainian military that is tired, depleted and depending heavily on the slow trickle of American armaments, came an unexpected offensive similar to the liberation of the Kharkiv region in November 2022. As a result, Russia looks disoriented and unrecognizable as a military superpower. Again, I’m no military strategist, but I’d say that’s the point. 

I admit, my reading consists of Western media that often reports Ukrainian “wins” and Russian losses. The reality on the ground may be different. While Russia makes small gains at great cost, they still seize more Ukrainian territory every month at the expense of Ukraine’s military and civilians. 

Recent reports indicate that Ukraine is barely holding the front line in the eastern Donbas. Relentless Russian attacks have resulted in the loss of cities like Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Both cities came at incredible losses to Russia, and nearly a coup d’etat lead by the late Wagner Group leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in 2023. Yet Russia persists. They have four times the population and ten times the economic strength of their neighboring country. Sanctions have not had a significant impact on Russia’s economy, while the destruction of Ukrainian cities has depleted them of people and resources.  

One of those resources is electricity. Russia has destroyed Ukraine’s power plants and hydro stations to the point where most Ukrainians no longer have a 24-hour power supply. They’re lucky if they get eight hours. Cutting off power affects everything, disrupting everyday life more than the threat of bombs and drones. 

 According to the Ukrainian woman who used to live with us, things have gotten much worse in the last year. While many Ukrainians, like her parents, own generators, they can’t afford the fuel to operate them continually. Some schools are no longer planning to operate this fall as a result. I have no doubt that Ukraine will find alternative power sources and innovate, but it takes time, and it takes a toll. Two-and-a-half years of relentless Russian attacks have taken a toll. 

It’s no surprise to me when I read of Ukrainian summer camps for children that now focus on military training. This is a generation that will never forget what Russia has done and will always be wary of what they plan to do next.  

As with the pointless war in Afghanistan in the 1980s, I do foresee Russia regretting the day they invaded Ukraine – the pointless destruction and death, all for a few more ruined cities. It’s impossible to predict when Russia will face such a reckoning, but not likely before they share some of the pain. 

For now, like most Ukrainians, I celebrate small victories.