Your unofficial COVID-19 update

Last week we received an email from our prospective ESL student from Japan. It began with, “I regret to inform you...” I’m sure you can figure out the rest.  

COVID-19, as they’ve coldly termed it, is impacting us all.  

If you’re like me, you’ve probably been learning a lot about viruses lately. I wrote in a past blog about how little I knew about this and other viruses, and even suggested the common flu was more worrisome.  

I apologize, for I was quite wrong. The common flu, although still deadly, has a mortality rate of 0.1%, while the new coronavirus kills 10 to 20 times the number of people it infects (1-2%).  

That's a high enough percentage to be worrisome. The infamous Spanish flu had a similar mortality rate in 1918, and its effects were felt throughout the world. Almost as many Canadians died from the Spanish flu as Canadian soldiers died in World War I. Granted, that was before modern healthcare. 

And there’s another key difference. Unlike the Spanish flu, which killed healthy adults under the age of 65, COVID-19 mortalities are highest in the elderly and those with compromised respiratory/immune systems. Thankfully, mortality rates are lowest among children and young adults. 

In my blog last month, I jokingly said this flu may be slightly less dangerous than the bird flu. Again, that’s wrong. The bird flu, I’ve since learned, was extremely deadly in the late 90s, killing 60% of those it infected. The total number of deaths was low, however, because its spread was more easily contained. The symptoms were severe and recognizable, allowing those who were infected to be isolated and treated quickly. 

To a lesser extent, the same held true for SARS, which killed 10% of those infected. In the end, it was contained, but many of those who were infected are still feeling the health effects today. 

COVID-19 is less severe and therefore can spread more widely. It’s a lot like the common flu, with many carriers showing no symptoms, hence its challenge to contain. The H1N1 strain that appeared in 2009 spread quickly, too, but had a much lower mortality rate. Today it's joined a number of other viruses to form the so-called common flu.

Vaccines were developed for the H1N1 virus and are still included in your annual flu shots. A coronavirus vaccine won’t be developed for at least another year, as proper testing is necessary to ensure there are no negative health impacts. By then, the initial outbreak will have likely run its course. 

Although no one really knows how long that will take. The Spanish flu, which first showed up early in 1918, went dormant through the summer, then returned in a deadlier second wave in fall. 

The Spanish flu, as I’m learning, was a lesson in what not to do, as both governments and the media tried to keep news of its spread quiet. The Spanish were much more transparent, and as a result, they got the virus named after them. There was no reward for being honest.

We’ve learned a lot since 1918 about viruses, but apparently not enough. By the sounds of it, we’re still under-prepared for a real pandemic. Although I joked about it (with some regret), we should really welcome the regular media updates. It’s so much better than governments (not mentioning any names) pretending no problem exists. 

But most important of all, let’s not be overcome by fear. Most people will only be mildly affected. It's not worth stockpiling a year's worth of masks or toilet paper. This kind of panic-purchasing will only leave a lot of people without toilet paper.

And wearing a mask, by the way, does little to prevent you from getting sick. Unless you're sick, then by all means, wear one. Even better to stay at home. 

But the best advice I’ve heard, from my wife and experts, is still the simplest: Wash your hands. Over and over and over again.