Canadian politics not so interesting? Think again, eh

  

“I know I should show more interest in Canadian politics,” said my cousin with a grin after learning Joe Biden was stepping aside. “But American politics is so much more interesting.” 

This is an unfortunate fact: Canadian news is a hard sell. I mean, for the last nine years, we’ve had to compete with Donald Trump – and, as we now know, that won’t be ending anytime soon (I could delve into an election post-mortem, but it’s still a little raw). 

Even without Trump, U.S. politics is interesting... consequential... and entertaining! Say what you will about American news networks, they know how to keep you watching. Not to speak from personal experience, but one can go overboard, especially when one starts to prefer CNN over one's local news networks (ahem!) 

Even if we don’t follow the news daily, many of us know more about the U.S. than we do our own country. 

For example, how much do you know about the Canadian Supreme Court? Do you know there are more female than male justices for the first time in Canadian history? Do you know they wear red and white robes that make them look like Santa Claus? 

How many Canadians know what the Senate does? Do you know it’s a complete waste of taxpayers' money? (I had a professor who served as the clerk of the Senate and even he advocated for its abolishment!) Unlike in the U.S., where the Senate is elected, ours is appointed by the prime minister and has little to no authority. Other than doodling and vacationing, Canadian senators review legislation and try to stay out of the news – because if they are, it’s likely they misappropriated funds or said something foolish. 

The American Senate, by contrast, has all kinds of power. It approves presidential nominees, creates budget bills and develops laws. The House of Representatives has a similar role, but its members serve two-year terms instead of six. This means Americans are almost always in the midst of an election year.  

If you blink, you might miss a Canadian election. Our campaigns typically last five to six weeks, and that’s just the way we like it.

Speaking of Canadian elections... Do you know Manitoba elected its first ever Indigenous premier of First Nations descent? That happened a year ago, in case you missed it. More recently, B.C. re-elected an NDP government where a recount gave them a one-seat majority a full week after the election. They won their last seat by 22 votes! That’s almost as exciting as the 2000 Bush-Gore election dispute, but without the hanging chads! 

I’ll leave you with some other fascinating historical tidbits in Canadian politics: 

• Our first Prime Minister, John A. Macdonald was involved in a scandal involving the railroads. He lost an election because of it, but like Trump, he just needed a break. Five years later he was prime minister again, a post he hung onto until his death. 
• Our longest-serving prime minister, William Lyon Mackenzie King, is probably the most Trump-like – as in weird. Not only did he participate in seances to talk to his deceased mother and dog, he also enjoyed the company of prostitutes (I mean, that’s pretty Trumpian). 
• In 1926, a dispute between the Governor General, Lord Byng, and the prime minister erupted when Mackenzie King was denied his request for an election. The controversy, known as the King-Byng Affair (love the name), backfired on Byng, leading Canada on a path of greater autonomy from the United Kingdom. King won re-election that same year, ultimately serving as Prime Minister for another 19 years. Byng, on the other hand, was fired. (Just kidding, his term ended.) 
• In 1991, Canada got its first female prime minister, Kim Campbell. Unfortunately, she only lasted 132 days. That's not long, but two men held the high office for even shorter terms: Charles Tupper in 1896 (69 days) and John Turner in 1984 (66 days). They make Joe Clark’s tenure of nine months seem like an eternity. 
• In 2015, Justin Trudeau proved you can win a Canadian election by promising small, ten-billion-dollar deficits, the legalization of weed, and an eternally ever-growing tax on fuel. Only in Canada, eh?  

Now that’s newsworthy! 

Don't hold your breath: My US election prediction is in

  

There are few people who correctly predict American presidential elections, but Allan Lichtman is one of them. Since the 1980s, this historian has used 13 “keys to the White House” to accurately predict who will win (except for one or two elections, depending on what he claimed to predict – the popular vote or the electoral college??) The keys include metrics like the state of the economy and the charisma of each candidate. Based on this year’s indicators, he predicts the next American president will be... Kamala Harris. 

Let me just say, there’s always a first (or second or third) time to be wrong. Let’s be honest, predicting this election with 100% confidence is next to impossible. It’s why most people who write for media outlets dare not predict the outcome. Your credibility could take a big hit. 

But, like Lichtman, I am not hindered, largely because my credibility is already shot. As a reminder, I predicted Thomas I-can-win-with-a-beard Mulcair would win the 2015 Canadian election. Instead, Justin The-budget-will-balance-itself Trudeau came out victorious. I predicted Hillary Let’s-rent-a-huge-facility-with-a-glass-ceiling-because-I'm-going-to-break-it Clinton would win the 2016 US election. Instead, Donald Locker-room-talk Trump became the next president. I didn't predict Joe How-did-I-end-up-here-anyway? Biden would win the 2020 election because I was too scared to say anything. He won it without my help. 

This year I’m going to give Trump some “help” with my prediction – the ultimate electoral jinx. Since the entire universe rides on my predictions, here it goes: Donald Trump will win the 2024 US presidential election.  

There, I said it. As much as it pains me to write this, there are legitimate reasons why this could become reality. The polls, after all, show a statistical tie, meaning each candidate has a 50% chance of winning. That's a flip of a coin. When he faced off against Clinton, Trump had a 33% chance of winning.  

Which brings me to my next point: Trump consistently overperforms the polls. He did it in 2016 and again in 2020. Biden attracted more Democratic voters than Clinton, which pushed him over the top, but it was still much closer than polls had predicted. 

Third, he’s a straight white rich man. Sorry, but that’s a huge advantage. Because of his biology and quasi-billionaire look, he can get away with saying almost anything. Post-election analysis showed that Barack Obama lost 2% of the vote across the Midwest because he was Black. He still won, but in these states he had to win by 2% more than John McCain and Mitt Romney to overcome that racial disadvantage. How much more will Kamala Harris have to overcome because she’s both Black and a woman?  

Lastly, Americans’ number one issue is still the economy. While things have been getting better and the US is far ahead of Europe and other countries in job and GDP growth, Americans still feel left behind. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that inflation and high interest rates have ruined some peoples’ lives. And for some reason, millions of Americans think Trump, who hasn’t met a tariff he doesn’t like, is an economic miracle worker. Again, it’s that quasi-billionaire look. 

All that said, Harris might win. Even though I have openly declared that she will undoubtedly lose, she might make American history next week. But for that to happen, Democratic voters will need to be more motivated than the last two elections. 

It could happen. This is the first presidential election since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. In the 2022 midterms, Republicans underperformed the polls, which may happen again.

Harris may also attract people who were otherwise not interested in politics to come out and vote. She appeals to young women in particular. If enough new voters come out like they did for Obama, they could push her across the finish line. On the other hand, I’ve heard that Trump is doing quite well with uneducated young men... 

So, to repeat, Harris will lose. (Are you listening, Universe?) 

If all goes through as planned, my credibility will remain in the dumpster, but I will be one happy man.