In experts we trust (for now)

I watched with some fascination as an articulate Californian doctor explained how COVID-19 is overblown. He appeared to be holding his own press conference, perhaps in some hospital basement? It sounded like there were some reporters in the room. Maybe from the local online paper? 

But this video was clearly making the rounds, otherwise I wouldn’t have received it from a friend; a friend who doesn’t tend to believe in conspiracy theories, by the way, but thought it was at least worth listening to.

After all, who doesn’t want to believe that this virus is largely overblown and that we can resume our lives? 

When one extrapolates the data, this young doctor claimed, you’ll see the virus is no worse than the flu, killing only 0.1% of those infected. Even in New York, it’s mostly killing off older people. So let’s get back to the way things were, and not worry. 

Parts of what he says are of course true. Rates of death are the highest in the elderly. The 0.1% mortality rate is also probably closer to reality than the 2-3% mortality rate we see in some official numbers. That’s because (at least from what I’ve read in the last 48 hours) 25-50% of those infected may show no or few symptoms and are not getting tested. However, at this time, the death rate appears to be at least 0.6% – this is still six times the death rate of the flu. And since our population had no immunity, it makes this percentage all the worse. 

It’s still tempting to believe in a more optimistic evaluation, especially in regions that have not yet felt the full impact of the virus. Especially when it’s coming from an articulate doctor who speaks with such confidence... even if it's from a hospital basement.

We tend to read and view the things that comply with what we believe; in normal times, we can get away with thinking however we please. But there’s little wiggle room during a pandemic, particularly when you’re someone with a respiratory ailment. We all know people who are vulnerable; they could be put at risk if we deny expert opinion. 

As members of a freewheeling democratic society, this puts us in an odd predicament. Because, as has become evident over the last couple decades, we trust experts less and less. And when there’s a prominent world leader (not naming any names) who himself disdains expert opinion, it can lead to some interesting outcomes (don’t be injecting yourself with Lysol now). 

In Canada, we tend to still trust the experts, at least so far. And for the most part, political leaders and health experts have been on the same page. Epidemiologists are in the best position to explain how the virus will spread and how we can keep it to a manageable level until a vaccine is developed. 

But over time, we’ll have to rely on other experts, like economists, social scientists, business and other leaders. There won’t be a return to complete normalcy, but there has to be some resumption of normal life. If not, other problems will arise, perhaps far worse than the health impacts of the virus itself. 

Chronic unemployment, lack of social supports, and reduced healthcare services pose serious risks to human health over the long term. 

We can’t just re-open a few sectors, like golf and other solitary outdoor activities, while ignoring the broader economy. But how we achieve the optimal level of societal health in this abnormal time is something that will only come through much trial and error, and time. 

Something for the experts to figure out.