The left has heft; this and other post-election analysis

The election results are in, and I can’t resist a little post-election analysis. So here it goes... 

It might as well be a majority. The Liberals don’t have to change their policies drastically for the NDP to prop up their minority government. The NDP is broke and can’t possibly want to fight another expensive election soon. This is the first time the NDP has held the balance of power since the 1970s, and Jagmeet Singh may have more influence than he'll ever get with 24 seats. If Justin Trudeau wants it, this government could last a full four years. 

Trudeau likes our electoral system for a reason. He won 36 more seats with fewer votes than Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives. Just as the U.S. Electoral College benefited Republicans in 2016 (Trump also lost the popular vote), the first-past-the-post system in Canada benefited the Liberals. If it keeps going like this, the Conservatives may want to join up with the Greens to advocate for electoral reform. 

The left has heft. Even though the Liberals won a dismal 33% of the popular vote, the progressive parties together won 55% of the vote (over 60% if you include the Bloc Québécois). These voters are quite fluid, moving from one party to another depending on the leader. It’s hard to believe, but only eight years ago the majority of Quebecers were voting NDP. 

The West may want out. Expect a lot of resentment coming from Alberta and Saskatchewan, where only one non-Conservative MP was elected. Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, if he wasn’t already, will become Trudeau’s unofficial opposition. Don’t expect Trudeau to make any friends in Alberta unless a pipeline gets built. 

Quebec wants in. They want more generous social spending, they want more autonomy, and they want action on climate change. The Bloc crushed the NDP and ruined the Liberals’ chance of a majority because the Bloc's leader most aptly defended those interests. Don’t expect Trudeau to make any friends in Quebec if a pipeline gets built. 

The carbon tax is here to stay. For any party to make political inroads in the future, they need an effective climate change plan, particularly to win in B.C., Ontario and Quebec. Saskatchewan and Alberta may even come on board someday, especially if a pipeline gets built (am I over-emphasizing the importance of a pipeline?) 

Andrew Scheer may last a year. If he’s lucky. His campaign baffled me, running on Stephen Harper’s policies and the hope that the Liberals would implode. The Liberals nearly did implode, but Scheer had to fill that vacuum of disillusionment with a bold vision of his own. He had one novel idea: to cut personal income taxes (by the way, the Liberals had the same idea). This wasn’t enough to defeat an incumbent.

The Greens may eventually overtake the NDP. Depending on who they select as their next leader, should Elizabeth May retire, the Greens have the most credibility on climate change – an issue that will continue to grow over the next decade. The NDP, traditionally the pro-environment party, could be squeezed out if a stronger Green leader arises. I’ve always liked May for her authenticity, but I believe she has an electoral ceiling, and this election she may have hit it. 

As Jerry Seinfeld so wisely recommended, always leave on a high note.